Hi Graeme,
I'm sorry that I don't have the answer to your question, but I have pondered it as well. In the past I have posted this question on the 850 yahoo group and on mirafiori.com but have not heard the answer. A few assorted thoughts on the subject:
First, I do know the 124 speedo drive gears were available in different numbers of teeth and were identified by color. All the 850 speedo drive gears I have seen were ivory colored plastic, but there was one on ebay last week identified as being for a spider, and it was green. Makes me think there may have been more than one color and therefore more than one number of teeth. (But maybe they all started out green and lost the color after years inside the transaxle).
Secondly, there is a Road and Track test from 1969 of a USA spec 1300/124 (3.89:1) where they opined that the speedo drive gear must not have been changed because the speedo read very much too high in their testing. Seems to me that a numerically lower rear end ratio would make the speedo read too low.
And lastly, a data point: I have a stock 4.875 (8/39) transaxle whose pinion gear has 10 teeth on the speedo end meshing with 26 teeth on the white plastic speedo output gear. I would be interested to know if others can tell us if they have anything different.
Best regards,
Eric Van Nice